There are two biggest players in the smartphone market – Apple and Samsung, and the second gets more and more market share.
The analyst expects Samsung to reach a share of 33 percent on the smartphone market, an increase of two percent since 2012.
Apple’s market share grows less rapidly. Mawston expects Apple to score a 21 percent share on the smartphone market, one percent up than in 2012.
Mawston says that the South Korean smartphone manufacturer sells more smartphones than Apple, which is why its market share grows faster.
But a smaller iPhone would help Apple focus on a new segment of customers, that of prepaid users, according to Mawston, which could boost sales for the company.
The analyst says:
“We believe Apple will have to launch an ‘iPhone Mini’ at some point over the next three years to address the hundreds of millions of prepaid users worldwide that cannot afford the current iPhone. The iPhone 5 is growing fast and profitably right now, so there is limited incentive for Apple to launch a profit-squeezing ‘iPhone Mini’ this year. We expect the ‘iPhone Mini’ to be more likely next year, in 2014, when Apple’s penetration of the global postpaid smartphone market will be nearing saturation and Apple will be forced to discover fresh growth streams elsewhere.”
Jefferies analyst Peter Misek expects a low-cost iPhone to be launched earlier this summer, for a price ranging between $200 and $250.